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Oct 7, 2012
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reminds them of -- >> if you look at the day by day poll, and you look at the post debate numbers, each category, whether going from immigration to medicare, whatever, shows that obama has slipped in each category. iraq, which will not even mentioned, we see running moving up in favorability. >> all because of the debate? >> these races do tend to tighten at the end, unless it is a total landslide. let me finish, guys. i really do think, to the great plea to all of us, this will be a down to the wire race. wille very close. >> see you next week.
reminds them of -- >> if you look at the day by day poll, and you look at the post debate numbers, each category, whether going from immigration to medicare, whatever, shows that obama has slipped in each category. iraq, which will not even mentioned, we see running moving up in favorability. >> all because of the debate? >> these races do tend to tighten at the end, unless it is a total landslide. let me finish, guys. i really do think, to the great plea to all of us, this...
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Oct 12, 2012
10/12
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there's also rasmussen poll that has romney three hey, 47-44. >> a lot of these polls where you see the president with, like, a five- or six-point lead, you go into the internals and you see they've been over-sampling democrats by, like, nine, or even, 10 or even 13 points. >> actually, greg, there was a brand new national bloomberg poll released today showing governor romney leading president obama on the issue of terrorism by six point. >> jon: how the hell are these polls so divergent, useless, accurate, yet quotable? i think we all know what we need? nerds! >> when you see obamaing gaining in today's poll, that means obama's interviews yesterday were better than seven days ago conducted before the debate. he went from three ahead in the seven-day track yesterday to five ahead in the track today. the next round of swing state polls shows the swing states tied, then democrats really will-- it will be appropriate for them to panic. ( laughter ) ( applause ) >> jon: nobody understands these things but those guys. and they're not telling us anything. is there anything that can help us ge
there's also rasmussen poll that has romney three hey, 47-44. >> a lot of these polls where you see the president with, like, a five- or six-point lead, you go into the internals and you see they've been over-sampling democrats by, like, nine, or even, 10 or even 13 points. >> actually, greg, there was a brand new national bloomberg poll released today showing governor romney leading president obama on the issue of terrorism by six point. >> jon: how the hell are these polls...
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Oct 9, 2012
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in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that poll in iowa shows a gain for mr. obama, a 5-point gain. in florida, the same poll shows a 4-point swing for romney. he's up by 2 points. so the major fall or minor lift, however, you rattle the number lose, as the overall national polling shifts and the swing state races shift with them, the state where the romney campaign is hoping for the biggest shift of all is in ohio. in modern political history, ohio has been the path to the presidency for republican candidates. if republican candidates win ohio, they win the white house. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio,
in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that...
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Oct 9, 2012
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the poll in the free press and the pew poll not the only good news for the romney forces. they got a big boost as well in gallup's tracking poll which shows a 47-47 tie among likely voters contacted on the 4th through the 6th. in pre-debate polling, mr. obama, president obama, led by five. now, as for today's pew poll, the obama campaign takes issue with the party make-up of people surveyed, saying it tilts republican compared to september. the romney campaign, on the other hand, says it's pleased with the numbers. joining us now, jim acosta with the romney campaign in newport news, virginia and on the phone, dan lothian with president obama's campaign. jim, you're on the trail with the romney campaign. what's the reaction to the latest polling, because republicans were complaining about these polls as soon as last week. now the poll is good news for them. are they complaining? >> well, anderson, i have to tell you i just saw mitt romney standing out in a drenching rain in newport news just a couple hours ago and he still had a smile on his face. they're pretty happy. they
the poll in the free press and the pew poll not the only good news for the romney forces. they got a big boost as well in gallup's tracking poll which shows a 47-47 tie among likely voters contacted on the 4th through the 6th. in pre-debate polling, mr. obama, president obama, led by five. now, as for today's pew poll, the obama campaign takes issue with the party make-up of people surveyed, saying it tilts republican compared to september. the romney campaign, on the other hand, says it's...
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Oct 10, 2012
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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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Oct 12, 2012
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today that is usually a pretty good poll that shows romney with a very large lead in florida, i don't think he has that but they need to find a way so that going into the last two weeks with i the debates they hope helping them more they have got one or two or three paths to get to 27 at this, they are not if you talk to honest republicans they are not overwhelmingly confident that, you know, for months they said we would rather be us than them, i don't think you heard too many honest republicans saying that now but he think they have a chance if the next debate goes well, on the other side, their strategy is, their premise is we have got to lead, the electorial college is still very much tilting toward them and that they believe that their ground game is vastly enter superior, and early voting and the mechanics of turning people out on voting day they think are significantly better and i think based on what i have been able to learn that is not a crazy position to have and they want to go back to doing what they have done so well and i think you will see subterranean messaging on thi
today that is usually a pretty good poll that shows romney with a very large lead in florida, i don't think he has that but they need to find a way so that going into the last two weeks with i the debates they hope helping them more they have got one or two or three paths to get to 27 at this, they are not if you talk to honest republicans they are not overwhelmingly confident that, you know, for months they said we would rather be us than them, i don't think you heard too many honest...
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means r
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the...
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. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>> tonight with 28 days until the presidential election, the head of the evolution-denying party got this question about evolution. >> that 47% comment that you made that's caused you a lot of grieve as you know. there's been a change in wrur position. you were initially saying when that tape came out that you weren't exactly elegantly stating your position. later and more recently you said you were completely wrong. i'm curious, governor, how did that evolution in your thinking go on from the initial reaction once that tape came out to what you said the other day that you were completely wrong? >> well, what i'm saying is that -- the words that came out were not what i
. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>>...
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let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost always happens the challenger goes up for a while in the polls but then goes back down. he think it would have much effect on the election and i tend to agree with him. >> that is if the candidate, if the president of the united states, comes back with a different game plan. what do you think he needs to do in the next debate he didn't do in the first debate? >> well, the bottom line is, i think that he is a fighter. i think he will come to the conclusion that he let romney get away with a little too much trying to be very presidential, and i don't think you'll see the same thing in the next debate. >> let's talk a
let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost...
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president obama and mitt romney criss-crossed ohio, as more polls showed romney cutting into the president's lead, in the wake of last week's debate. and thousands of greeks staged angry protests against the visiting chancellor of germany, over her push for austerity policies. we have job search tips online. hari sreenivasan has the details. >> sreenivasan: headhunter nick corcodilos offers this advice. starting a business is actually a great way to network and land a dream job. that's on our making sense page. and on art beat, we have a new feature, the tuesday cut line. give us your best caption on the photo posted for a chance to win a newshour mug. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. judy? >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. on wednesday, we'll look at the battle for suburban voters in colorado. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. we'll see you on-line, and again here tomorrow evening. thank you, and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> they can be enlightening or engaging. conversatio helus lrn and grow. >
president obama and mitt romney criss-crossed ohio, as more polls showed romney cutting into the president's lead, in the wake of last week's debate. and thousands of greeks staged angry protests against the visiting chancellor of germany, over her push for austerity policies. we have job search tips online. hari sreenivasan has the details. >> sreenivasan: headhunter nick corcodilos offers this advice. starting a business is actually a great way to network and land a dream job. that's on...
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doug schwartz runs quinnipiac universitys polling institute. >> right now, pew has romney up by three points. gallup has obama up by five points in their seven-day track, but since the debate they have obama up by just three points. >> reporter: or how about old friend ray fair, an economist we've been visiting every four years since the george h. bush administratn. he's got an economic model. >> so right at this moment, its 49.5% of the two-party vote for obama. >> reporter: so the polls and models call it a toss-up. but curiously, the betting public tells a very different story. online betting prediction markets, like ireland's intrade, which takes bets from americans, and england's betfair, which doesnt, have made obama the strong favorite for months. the lone domestic and entirely legal betting haven, the iowa electronic markets at the university of iowa. ever frugal, we asked hari srinivasan, our man in the midwest-- at least last week-- to drop in. >> sreenivasan: this is the entire iowa electronic market? >> this is our server room right here. >> sreenivasan: so the entire pred
doug schwartz runs quinnipiac universitys polling institute. >> right now, pew has romney up by three points. gallup has obama up by five points in their seven-day track, but since the debate they have obama up by just three points. >> reporter: or how about old friend ray fair, an economist we've been visiting every four years since the george h. bush administratn. he's got an economic model. >> so right at this moment, its 49.5% of the two-party vote for obama. >>...
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in the last poll it had increased to 82%. >> that's understandable. >> romney? >> no, we're getting a little bit closer to the election. people are paying more attention to the election. when you see the polls and try to understand why the numbers are so different between romney and obama, you have to understand the great majority feel that democrats represent their interests and care about their issues more than republicans. and what has hurt republicans is that very negative rhetoric on the immigration issue. that has hurt republicans tremendously. and the fact that now they have a candidate for the first time like george said. even in the last ee lerks, mccain, all of the candidates have embraced candidate reform. this is the first time they've said i want it for legal immigration. he keeps emphasizing legal immigration thinking that latis are so iorant tha they're going to buy it when he's talking about legal immigration and not finding a solution. i asked romney, with all due respect the fact that you are not answering this question makes people feel like y
in the last poll it had increased to 82%. >> that's understandable. >> romney? >> no, we're getting a little bit closer to the election. people are paying more attention to the election. when you see the polls and try to understand why the numbers are so different between romney and obama, you have to understand the great majority feel that democrats represent their interests and care about their issues more than republicans. and what has hurt republicans is that very negative...
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Oct 11, 2012
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it's considered a must-win state for his presidential bid, and polls show he's been closing the gap with president obama. romney took questions from voters in mount vernon, prepping for his town hall-style debate with the president next week. and he hammered away on the economy. >> my whole passion is about helping the american people who are struggling right now. that's what this is about. the president says he's for middle class. how've they done under his presidency? not so well. i want to help the middle class get good jobs and better take- home pay. i know how to do that. >> sreenivasan: romney also underscored his anti-abortion stance after saying tuesday that he would not pursue abortion- related measures if he's elected. tod, he tolreporters, "i'll be a pro-life president." meanwhile, president obama spent the day at the white house. in an interview with radio host tom joyner, he said he's not surprised by the tightening polls. >> governor romney kept on making mistakes month after month so it made it looked artificially like this was, might end up being a cakewalk. but we unders
it's considered a must-win state for his presidential bid, and polls show he's been closing the gap with president obama. romney took questions from voters in mount vernon, prepping for his town hall-style debate with the president next week. and he hammered away on the economy. >> my whole passion is about helping the american people who are struggling right now. that's what this is about. the president says he's for middle class. how've they done under his presidency? not so well. i...
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in the current poll 49% say we have more confidence in romney. just 41% say that about obama. obama or romney now has his advantage on the budget deficit. he made progress on the issues that were the subjects that took... dominated the debate. >> warner: yet you found... go ahead. >> i was just going to add, margaret. andy is absolutely correct. i think it's stunning when you look at medicare, health care and foreign policy, sure, the president still has a narrow advantage on all those issues. but mitt romney suddenly is in the ballgame almost even with the president on these certainly two of the medicare and health care traditionally democratic issues. that's a stunning development, i think. >> warner: how does this lay the table for the vice presidents' debates? it clearly raises the stakes. >> traditionally vice president shall debates have not made very much difference in the outcome of elections. democrats are worried they are losing momentum that they see all these gains for governor romney on so many fronts. this will be a chance for vice president biden maybe to prosec
in the current poll 49% say we have more confidence in romney. just 41% say that about obama. obama or romney now has his advantage on the budget deficit. he made progress on the issues that were the subjects that took... dominated the debate. >> warner: yet you found... go ahead. >> i was just going to add, margaret. andy is absolutely correct. i think it's stunning when you look at medicare, health care and foreign policy, sure, the president still has a narrow advantage on all...
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i was impressed that the first romney debate caused a major swing in the polls. >> that is a great question. i have a fairly different opinions than most of my colleagues in this town. i do think that it is somewhat locked in.you ask people who they will vote for. that is a complicated question. you are on the phone answering somebody's question. some people want to please people and others want to not these people. there are varying degrees of people actually dialing in and paying attention. my own feeling is that is a very difficult time for any incumbent with unemployment reaching 10% and all the troubles any incumbent would have defending best. president obama is going into a very tough headwind. people dial in at a later and later date. a poll will tell you it is neck and neck. pollsters make money if things are neck and neck. people like me stay employed. a lot of those people happen to dial in at that moment. when they do that, they make up their mind. larget think there is a group of super intelligent independent voters that are paying attention to what is going on and saying, i sti
i was impressed that the first romney debate caused a major swing in the polls. >> that is a great question. i have a fairly different opinions than most of my colleagues in this town. i do think that it is somewhat locked in.you ask people who they will vote for. that is a complicated question. you are on the phone answering somebody's question. some people want to please people and others want to not these people. there are varying degrees of people actually dialing in and paying...
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romney had a good night. i had a bad night. it is not the first time i have had a bad night. >> in the polls are to be believed, it was a bad bad night. and the president was still talking about it a week later. in fact, he has not stopped talking about it. did the shift surprise you? >> what surprised me most of all is that, barely 10 days a, my good conservative friends were telling about the sinister conspiracy of polls. but they're all -- to give this impression that the liberals were running away -- that they're all rigged to give this impression that the liberals were running away with everything. and now it has been hijacked and it is for them. this did dispirit the liberals. there is a sense of real puzzlement over theresident. why didn't he show up? these are people who have been pto to their inaugural outfit. the romney -- have been picking alton their inaugural outfits. the romney people figured it was over and they were going to concentrate on the house and may be winning the senate. so it was transformational in th
romney had a good night. i had a bad night. it is not the first time i have had a bad night. >> in the polls are to be believed, it was a bad bad night. and the president was still talking about it a week later. in fact, he has not stopped talking about it. did the shift surprise you? >> what surprised me most of all is that, barely 10 days a, my good conservative friends were telling about the sinister conspiracy of polls. but they're all -- to give this impression that the...
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new polls show governor romney and president oma nck neck in t raceorresident. joining me now from washington, tom friedman of the "new york times." >> great to be with you, charlie. thank you. >> rose: so tell me what you thought of the governor's speech today and did you learn more about his foreign policy positions from it? >> well, you know, i'm -- it's always good to see governor romney, any of the candidates, taking foreign policy seriously. and, you know, this speech certainly does that. but underlying it, charlie, i'd say are several criticisms i would have. one is there's thi basically republican trope that romney has fallen back on which is kind of the old one: democrats are wimps basically, and republicans are the daddy party and they're tough and obama's basically a democrat of whim. >> rose: right. >> and the facts just don't bear it out. so that's kind of the underlying theme. also there's a -- i think just a straight out false statement that no trade agreements have been concluded under obama. i believe he signed three of them, including one with
new polls show governor romney and president oma nck neck in t raceorresident. joining me now from washington, tom friedman of the "new york times." >> great to be with you, charlie. thank you. >> rose: so tell me what you thought of the governor's speech today and did you learn more about his foreign policy positions from it? >> well, you know, i'm -- it's always good to see governor romney, any of the candidates, taking foreign policy seriously. and, you know, this...
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we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points there in just over a week. in new hampshire a new wmur granite state poll showses in last nine day he's whittled the 15-point lead down to 6 points. national polls has romney edging ahead of barack obama for the first time this year. the question is, is this what happens naturally, or was this spurred by the debate? >> it doesn't happen naturally. it happens after an earthquake. >> really? >> there was a political earthquake last week, the likes of which i've never seen in american politics, where a shift happened that dramatically in one night. donny, you've seen t
we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points...
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and this amazing surge in the poll for romney. pugh, gallup, you name it, they are saying nothing but nice things about governor romney. what is your reaction? >> my reaction is president obama better do more than just make a few jokes at a fund-raiser out in los angeles. lou: was that a joke? >> she did say he was having an off night and not a stellar performance. lou: let's share thi self-deprecating humor. i'm going to call everybody's caught the president's laughing and used face as he says this. see how much fun you thought the president was having as he made this self-deprecating joke. >> everybody here is an incredible professional, such great friends. they just performed flawlessly night after night. i can always say the same. [laughter] lou: did you see hm cracking up? he can barely control himself. >> his idea of settles humor. i mean, what can he do? lou: the great one is so new ones that we cannot detected. >> at least he acknowledged that he has a problem. lou: what do you think? >> well, his surrogates are out there
and this amazing surge in the poll for romney. pugh, gallup, you name it, they are saying nothing but nice things about governor romney. what is your reaction? >> my reaction is president obama better do more than just make a few jokes at a fund-raiser out in los angeles. lou: was that a joke? >> she did say he was having an off night and not a stellar performance. lou: let's share thi self-deprecating humor. i'm going to call everybody's caught the president's laughing and used...
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. >> 18 point swing in one poll is huge. >> if we were to see that number confirmed by other poll, romney would be the favorite but it's not what we're seeing in the bulk of data. sometimes there can be a tendency to take a big headline number, when we're getting 15 or 20 polls released. if romney is doing that well among women, we will see the result confirmed by other polls quite soon. >> his people also believe that he did well from the debate independents, men, the elderly in particular. that's what their own internal polling is showing. would you agree with that? >> in the debate he was able to reposition himself toward the center of the electorate. last time we talked about, this is something very strange where romney has been playing to the base, even to some extent at his convention, he was doing that. but he shifted towards the center and obama was a little bit feeble in trying to rebut that. that's an important factor. historically candidates who can appear to be in the middle of the electorate tend to win and those on the wings tend to lose. that was a big strategic gain romney
. >> 18 point swing in one poll is huge. >> if we were to see that number confirmed by other poll, romney would be the favorite but it's not what we're seeing in the bulk of data. sometimes there can be a tendency to take a big headline number, when we're getting 15 or 20 polls released. if romney is doing that well among women, we will see the result confirmed by other polls quite soon. >> his people also believe that he did well from the debate independents, men, the elderly...
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romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins. >> the media is focusing on one poll. >> that's reaction to the recent batch of polling, including that devastating pew poll that showed a four point romney lead. now consider that pew took an earlier poll in september a couple weeks before the debate, it was the republicans going ballistic when it showed romney eight points down. watch. >> these polls are basically just part and parcel of the campaign for barack obama to help him stay in this game as long as possible. >> if you believe what the polls are saying right now, you've got to believe that there's s
romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins....